Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 14.723661 17.930867 21.487820 25.700127 30.526353 35.857262 42.164043
2025-11-02 9.835106 13.885884 18.878421 25.373037 33.480019 43.145405 55.409717
2025-11-09 7.287512 11.612069 17.407163 25.499075 36.243411 49.748682 67.706947
2025-11-16 5.538010 9.860490 16.102028 25.362720 38.303550 55.275102 78.685078
2025-11-23 4.159276 8.271304 14.654924 24.679089 39.350358 59.326253 87.767616
2025-11-30 3.461409 7.569252 14.345296 25.486328 42.399049 66.103583 100.676031
2025-12-07 2.703634 6.567075 13.371301 25.110368 43.609051 70.300730 110.166986
2025-12-14 2.210779 5.922730 12.861367 25.352074 45.679925 75.742451 121.545692
2025-12-21 1.636942 4.947717 11.594222 24.164910 45.385869 77.644528 127.883440
2025-12-28 1.387398 4.605777 11.425232 24.800118 47.981840 83.915089 140.743063
2026-01-04 1.149320 4.217634 11.095607 25.093040 50.001507 89.361374 152.549924
2026-01-11 0.963698 3.903147 10.858007 25.510396 52.224717 95.183401 165.088927
2026-01-18 0.812181 3.651359 10.753596 26.246987 55.181483 102.514177 180.555324
2026-01-25 0.620939 3.201443 10.130409 25.912452 56.260007 106.935995 191.805049
2026-02-01 0.492399 2.891657 9.766606 26.040430 58.144726 112.715855 205.339056
2026-02-08 0.379320 2.572442 9.307868 25.901825 59.503169 117.651258 217.673149
2026-02-15 0.273319 2.205542 8.635876 25.206915 59.742155 120.684057 227.034834
2026-02-22 0.230449 2.096699 8.647507 26.027464 62.918524 128.822254 244.873259
2026-03-01 0.168809 1.837956 8.163504 25.645317 63.704446 132.847297 256.102286
2026-03-08 0.132017 1.684097 7.958558 25.891003 65.739060 139.112195 271.186955
2026-03-15 0.083865 1.385938 7.202256 24.684208 64.722270 139.904913 277.154691
2026-03-22 0.067985 1.310828 7.183642 25.329946 67.572215 147.728522 295.153675
2026-03-29 0.051991 1.208231 7.038799 25.627703 69.696859 154.297862 311.186008